Things Are Looking Bleak

My wife’s maiden name is Bleak. A synonym for this word is dreary. In the fall of 1983, just a few months before the Mac would be launched, my personal view of our prospects in the marketplace were looking bleak and dreary. This is not a comment on how my wife was looking in the fall of 1983 – she was, and is, beautiful and wonderful! 

I was careful not to share these Mac worries with anyone, either in or out of Apple. The prevailing wisdom in the Mac group, perhaps influenced by Steve’s famous reality distortion field, was that the Mac would dominate the moment it was launched. It would be insanely great. 

A key part of my job as marketing director was to work closely with the very talented public relations team at Regis McKenna and the all-star advertising team at Chiat-Day to create an integrated external image of an innovative, breakthrough product that would disrupt the market and become the leader. Though we would be an insurgent in the market, we could move to the front of the parade in very short order. This was not just the prevailing hope, it was the de-facto expectation.

But two short abbreviations were the root cause for my distress: IBM and FUD.

In the 1980s, IBM was king of the computer industry and FUD was its middle name. First with mainframe computers and then with personal computers, IBM owned the market. And also with long-term contracts for service and support. Though their computers were large, bulky and hard to use, it didn’t matter.

This is because FUD stands for Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

Corporate purchasers were filled with FUD if they did not buy IBM. Buying IBM also bought job security. No one ever got fired for buying IBM. And it became a positive virtual cycle for IBM. It is difficult to overstate the power of IBM FUD in the early 1980s. It was a business strategy executed brilliantly without the rancor and toxicity of today's social environment.

The more that companies bought IBM products, the safer the bet seemed to be … so more and more companies continued down this path. IBM salesmen (who were primarily men in those days) were extremely well trained. Though they didn’t use the word FUD explicitly when talking to a customer, they employed every known scheme and tactic to create fear, uncertainty and doubt should the customer begin to waver from the mother ship.

The IBM Personal Computer, using Microsoft DOS as its operating system, was introduced on August 12, 1981. It quickly became the industry standard, not because of innovation or ease of use, but because it was the safe bet from the safe company. The IBM PC had a 2 ½ year headstart on the Mac – and this was during the period of time when businesses were just discovering the great benefit of putting computers on workers desks, loaded up with a word processor and a spreadsheet. It was perfect timing for IBM. It was a perfect storm for the Mac. Moreover, all the clone manufacturers like Hewlett Packard, Compaq and others jumped on the PC bandwagon.

By October 1983 the BusinessWeek magazine cover story declared unequivocally that IBM was the winner (see photo below). Game over! All pretenders can go home! IBM was riding high. No need for the Mac.

To compound the seriousness of this situation was the result of a secret market research focus group we conducted amongst male and female business people in New York City.

The carefully selected participants all used desktop computers in their daily jobs, and had responsibility for recommending the purchase of additional computers for their businesses. As I recall, about 4-5 members of our marketing team joined me in observing this focus group.

We were situated in a viewing room directly adjacent to where the participants were. A two way mirrored window separated us from them. We could both see and hear them, but they could neither see nor hear us. 

A long table was set up in the participant’s room directly against the wall that held the two way mirror. On the table we had set up an IBM PC and a Mac. Up until now, no one in the general public had ever seen a Mac, or any computer with a mouse. At one point during the focus group we were just inches away from the participants, but they never knew.

We asked the participants to complete basic office tasks on the PC and the Mac. An example would be that of moving a block of text from the front of a document to the middle of a document. Today we would simply say, “cut and paste”. But in those days on a PC it required a collection of arcane computer commands – both difficult to remember and equally difficult to use for a normal person. But on the Mac it was as simple as pointing the mouse, selecting the text, copying and pasting. Four simple, seamless steps. This was huge! It was like going from a small black and white TV to a full screen IMAX. It was like going from a backyard birthday party to Disneyland.

These middle aged, seasoned PC users acted like joyful children as they quickly learned how to use the mouse and the graphical user interface of the Mac. No real instructions were required. They laughed, they pointed, they even giggled in delight.

And then we instructed the focus group facilitator to discuss this experience with the participants. All the participants were exceptionally enthused about the Mac. It was much easier to use than the PC. It was intuitive. It was fun. It offered better office productivity. They wish they could have one both at work and at home. It was everyone’s favorite.

At this point in the evening I can remember the great happiness and joy on our side of the mirror. We were celebrating. We were giving each other high-fives. We knew that in just a couple months the Mac would actually overcome the FUD odds and conquer all. It would truly be the democratization of technology. It would be a revolution. The Mac was the computer for the rest of us.

Oh, but we still had one last question to ask. We settled back down into our metal chairs and we heard, through the speaker, the facilitator ask, “If you were in charge of purchasing more computers for your company, which of these two computers would you choose?”

The tone of the gathering immediately switched from light to dark. Summer turned to winter. Heaven turned to hell. Unanimously and without any hesitation everyone in the room pointed at the IBM PC and said with no fear, uncertainty or doubt, “That one.”

My stomach sank. What could we possibly do in the next 2-3 months to establish, at a minimum, a beachhead upon which we might build incremental market share in the following 1-2 years. It was a long flight home from NYC to the Bay Area. Once again I was bleak and dreary.